The War in Europe, 2022
John M. Lane
As the completely unnecessary Russian invasion of Ukraine enters its third week, it appears that all is not going according to plan for the Russians. One must state that all war plans break down the moment war starts.
The size of the initial Russian force was not large enough, with enough firepower to overcome Ukrainian resistance. The Russians did not anticipate that the Ukrainians would fight with such fierceness. As a result, the Russians have reverted to their tried-and-true “scorched earth” tactics: heavy artillery, missiles, and air bombardment. The infrastructure of Ukraine is in the process of being destroyed. It seems nothing is off-limits: hospitals, schools, even nuclear power plants. Hundreds of thousands are now without shelter; millions are now refugees in neighboring countries.
Without a doubt, combat casualties have been heavy for both sides; you can be assured that Russia will never accurately admit its losses. It can be safely assumed that morale in the lowest ranks of the Russian invasion force is not high. They are primarily draftees, many wondering why they are fighting Ukrainians. Logistics in the Russian army do not come anywhere near a modern Western army. The Russians have problems supplying their forces with adequate fuel, food, ammunition, and other supplies. This situation is the one optimistic hope the Ukrainians have; hold on as more and more Western weapons and supplies reach their forces. Economic sanctions, including on energy, need to be made even tighter. Will this hurt you at the gas/petro pump? Yes, it will. You have a decision to make.
However, this needs to be said: the fighting will only worsen. The Russian leader and his minions cannot afford to lose this war. A scale of violence even more significant than what we are currently witnessing will be unleashed soon. The following cannot happen: NATO CAN NOT INTERVENE MILITARILY. It cannot. The world wars of the 20th century began over conflicts much smaller than the current Ukraine War. That fact makes this war incredibly dangerous for the world. One false move, one false communication could start a thermo-nuclear war. Take nuclear weapons out of the equation, and NATO would defeat the Russian military in the air, sea, and ground. BOTH SIDES KNOW THIS.
The West (and the world) must continue its support for Ukraine. Humanitarian aid needs to be increased. Supplies, food, medical help needs to reach Ukraine and the countries taking in Ukrainian refugees. This is going to be a long process over a period of YEARS. Military support must continue to reach Ukrainian forces. To repeat, the fighting will get even worse as the Russians seek to occupy all of Ukraine. In their mind, if they leave Ukraine as nothing but scorched earth, then so be it.
For twenty years, Western and world leaders have “kowtowed,” soft-pedaled, apologized for, “admired,” and even supported the current Russian leader. This war in Ukraine is their reward.
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